Untangling the Final Kings of Judah

Between Josiah's death in 609BC, and the fall of Jerusalem in 587/6BC, Judah gets through four more kings; about par for Israel in one of her more unsettled phases, but decidedly high for Judah. There is considerable disagreement as to the precise year that each event in the period happened (due to uncertainty as to when the new year was considered to begin), but the sequence is clear. Below I suggest a possible sequence of events to try to explain why things happened as they did. My sources are the Old Testament (2 Kings, 2 Chronicles and Jeremiah) and the Babylonian Chronicles. I have not included Josephus' commentary as he is unlikely to have had access to any first-hand information.
Firstly, one must understand that the Babylonian Chronicles (which unfortunately are not extant as far as the fall of Jerusalem) primarily record what the emperor (Nebuchadnezzar for the years of our interest) is doing, rather than what his army is doing. Nebuchadnezzar may be at home with his harem whilst the army is busy besieging some unfortunate town. Conversely Nebuchadnezzar may lay claim to some action simply because he ordered it, without being there in person.
Secondly, Nebuchadnezzar absolutely has to be in Babylon for the New Year Celebrations (March/April) which affirm his kingship. A perusal of the Babylonian Chronicles indicates that he tends to set off campaigning in the ninth or tenth month (December/January, when sitting around in the palace is likely to begin to be unpleasantly cold), although he also often fights, or at least goes on tours to receive homage from vassal kings, in summer (when Babylon is insufferably hot).
From 1 Chr 3:15 we learn that Josiah had four sons: Johanan, Jehoiakim, Zedekiah and Shallum, the latter confirmed by Jer 22:11 to be the same as Jehoahaz. Herein lies our first problem as Zedekiah is only twenty-one when he ascends the throne in 598, and therefore much younger than Shallum/Jehoahaz. To me, the simplest solution is that Josiah took Johanan, Jehoiakim and Zedekiah to fight with him at Megiddo against Pharaoh Neco in 609, leaving his youngest son Jehoahaz in charge of the kingdom in his absence. Johanan is heard of no more, so presumably died in battle, as does Zedekiah, leaving a young son Mattaniah, who will become the future king Zedekiah*. Jehoiakim meanwhile is captured alive by the Egyptians.
When news of Josiah's death reaches Jerusalem, the inhabitants immediately anoint his son Jehoahaz king, presuming all the elder sons to have died in battle. However, after receiving a crash course in the invincibility and inevitability of the Egyptian army, Jehoiakim is brought back to Jerusalem and made king by Neco in the hope that he will prove a loyal vassal. Jehoahaz is removed to a safe distance where he cannot be a focus for rebellion.
In 605 the political situation changes completely. Neco is defeated at Carchemish by the Babylonians under Nebuchadnezzar, who shortly afterwards inherits the throne on the death of his father, the emperor Nabopolassar. In the following year Nebuchadnezzar makes a victory tour through Palestine, and Jehoiakim submits to him. Nebuchadnezzar takes much of the temple gold back to Babylon, along with Daniel and, I suggest, Mattaniah, who is to undertake a degree in Babylonian vassal kingship, as a timely reminder to Jehoiakim to behave if he wants his son to inherit his throne.
In 601 the Egyptians defeat the Babylonians, and Jehoiakim prematurely switches sides. The Babylonians regroup and return to besiege Jerusalem in 598. Jeremiah prophesies that Jehoiakim will be thrown out and exposed to the elements (36:30) and will have the burial of a donkey (22:19, presumably just left on the ground and covered with large stones). Why does Jehoiakim meet this fate? (Josephus' claim that Nebuchadnezzar did this in order to fulfil Jeremiah's prophecies is unconvincing and rather circular!).
I suggest that the elite, who had incited Jehoiakim to rebel in the first place to lessen the tax exactions they faced, now turn on him and hand him over to the Babylonians in the hope that the Babylonians will end the siege. An exhausted, betrayed and shackled (2 Chr 36:6?) Jehoiakim dies suddenly of a highly contagious disease (it's December and the weather is turning cold), or perhaps septicaemia from an infected wound; nobody wants his (possibly infectious) body, so he is just dumped, covered with a pile of stones.
The Jews need a (living) king, so they anoint his son Jehoiachin in his place. The field commander lets things be (initiative is dangerous if you have Nebuchadnezzar as boss) but sends the news of Jehoiakim's death by fast camel to Nebuchadnezzar (who may already be on his way). Nebuchadnezzar sends for, or brings, Mattaniah with him. Jehoiachin didn't want to be the fall guy in the first place and is happy to surrender to Nebuchadnezzar, who treats him (relatively) well. Nebuchadnezzar renames Mattaniah after his father (Zedekiah = 'God is righteous') as a reminder of the oath of loyalty he has sworn and installs him as king.
And everyone lives happily ever after. Except that Zedekiah rather foolishly rebels and Jerusalem is therefore destroyed.

*This splitting of Zedekiah requires that Zedekiah senior sires Zedekiah/Mattaniah junior aged about fourteen. Compare this with Josiah who would have been fourteen also when he sired Jehoiakim and a little younger for Johanan, his eldest son. This desire to ensure plenty of potential royal successors as early as possible is not unexpected, after all the fathers didn't need to provide any financial support for their offspring themselves. It is of course possible that there is only one Zedekiah who is actually much older than twenty-one at his accession, but then you have to explain where he was in 608BC. He could not have been in Jerusalem, as he would have been made king as the eldest son present. If he was at Megiddo and escaped back to Jerusalem, Neco would hardly have left him there, given that he had a greater right to the throne than Jehoahaz, whom he deposed.

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